Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit. This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful. Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation. That said,…
Europacifica CEO Naomi Fink has been invited to present her findings on Japanese Total Factor Productivity at the 2016 Annual Conference of Economists of the Economic Society of Australia in Adelaide. Her presentation is entitled Heterogeneity in Japanese TFP, Part 1: Why Overcoming Deflation Alone is Not Enough.
“I would hate to be one of the traders forced to make prices June 23-24.” A New York FX market-watcher – Geopolitical risk seems to be the over-arching theme this week; with market uncertainty (as we can see in stock weakness) over the UK referendum looming, neither the BOJ nor the Fed wished to take too hawkish a tone. – Add to this soft underlying inflation expectations (hence the weaker…
Speaking to Yvonne Man at Asia open on: The BOJ and Japanese inflation expectations The British referendum, its effects on markets and expectations The Nikkei and dollar-yen Cross-market risks See link for related article.
On the potential delay of the consumption tax hike in Japan: “It’s one very easy show of supporting consumption and also it’s a way of flexing political muscle,” Naomi Fink, CEO of Europacifica Consulting, told CNBC.”My main worry remains that this sends the wrong message with regards to fiscal credibility.” Click here for video link
Sentiment in stocks tends to be adversely affected by yen strength, though both might actually be influenced by global appetite for risk/uncertainty over global demand. Naomi Fink chats with CNBC’s Matthew Taylor on the yen, impact on Japanese corporates and BOJ policy. Click here to view the segment.
At the second Structural Reform Ministerial Meeting held in Cebu, the Philippines in September 2015, Ministers instructed the Economic Committee (EC) to focus on “structural reform and services” for the 2016 APEC Economic Policy Report (AEPR). APEC has awarded Europacifica Consulting a mandate to deliver an expert study on Japanese financial sector reform for the 2016 AEPR.
On the yen, BOJ, Abenomics and more. See link for commentary.
Outlook for Japanese markets Data out of Japan today: household spending, jobless rate and retail sales– impact on the markets? BOJ Policy and reflation Consumption tax hike and fiscal policy Link to video
Naomi Fink discusses Japan GDP growth in H2 2016, BOJ QQE-NIR and Abenomics/Womenomics See link for related commentary.