Naomi Fink on CNBC 8:50 JST

http://www.cnbc.com

Yen has been the (perhaps unwilling) beneficiary of the risk-aversion of Brexit.

This type of environment is a high risk environment for MOF intervention, but where volatility is mainly concentrated in the GBP (see graphic) not yen, intervening in USDJPY might not be so useful.  Moreover, right while BOJ is supplying dollars via auction it is possible there is a desire not to intervene as a cross-current to this operation.

That said, given skittish markets and yen’s status as a risk haven, MOF may stay on high intervention alert for quite some time.  It is a good idea to keep watching speculative positioning and volatility.

Given upcoming elections, there is probably reason for a lot of political pressure on the MOF to intervene; still the focus is diverted from Abenomics to developments abroad, which might mean a fairly positive outcome for Abe.  Expect further justifications for delay in the consumption tax hike and fiscal spending package already planned.